We are conflating two issues here (syncing and future development), but hopefully people can deal with that.
FOR STASIS
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Some forum users (possibly ageing, and some open about having conditions that don’t always welcome change) who are happy with things as they are.
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macOS is currently more powerful than iOS.
FOR CHANGE
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Some forum users who are unhappy with Dropbox syncing.
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iOS is improving all the time.
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Reviewers on the App Store who are unhappy with Dropbox syncing.
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Well-known writers who a few years ago were evangelising about Scrivener are now evangelising about Ulysses and other writing apps.
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Read any article that mentions Scrivener, and you are likely to read (in the article or comments) about Dropbox issues.
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Apple have made it clear that iOS-based apps are the future. Jobs even said this 10 years ago when he gave his trucks-versus-cars analogy.
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Tim Cook and Apple have pushed the idea that an iPad is a computer and the only computer most consumers will ever need.
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Apple has gutted its iWork, iLife, and other consumer-facing apps, rebuilding them based on iOS designs. They have been successful. The future of Apple app development is clear.
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iOS has a far larger number of users than macOS.
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Look at articles on Apple-centric websites this week about iOS 13 and Catalina. The iOS 13 articles have five or six times more comments than the Catalina articles. iOS is clearly the main market.
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It is far easier for a developer to develop once and publish everywhere (mirroring Scrivener’s core ethos) than it is to run two or more development streams for the same product.
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It is far cheaper for a company to develop and support one common app than two or more.
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It is far easier for a company to bring developments to one app rather than two or more.
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It is far better for users to have a single app design that works on all their devices: learn once, be productive; don’t waste time learning a different interface.
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Forum users are already posting comments about switching to using iPads alone.
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Outside the forum, many people are switching to using phones and tablets (mainly to the detriment of desktops).
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Apple will release ARM-based laptops: they are likely to run iOS-based apps.
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Project Catalyst absolutely is about encouraging developers to develop once and publish everywhere, and it absolutely is about moving developers away from producing macOS-only apps.
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Apple’s entire drive with the move to iOS, ARM, Swift, etc, is all about making iOS the core platform for consumers. Does anyone really think that after all the hardware and software changes made by Apple in the last decade that the company will suddenly lurch back to making macOS its headline product?
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Tech sites already acknowledge that Catalyst is about bringing more productivity apps to macOS and not just games (as repeatedly and wrongly suggested by some here).
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Modern users are used to working with convenient and cohesive designs: they use technology without having or wanting to think about it. Dropbox presents an unnecessary barrier. Two different designs for Scrivener create another unnecessary barrier. Why would any developer want to put up barriers that keep buyers away? Surely one app cannot fly in the face of change and expect modern users to work as old users did in the past. We are at a point where tech barriers are coming down and the tech itself rarely needs to be thought about. The current system is more complex than it needs to be, and it absolutely is putting buyers off, irrespective of what some people are claiming.
We have all seen resistance to change: vinyl is better than digital; 35mm film is better than digital; floppy disks work so well, etc, etc. The arguments being made here are pretty much the same Luddite positions that have been expressed about tech changes in the past. With all respect, no one has come up with a single cogent reason as to why Scrivener should be held back while other apps, such as Ulysses, are clearly forging ahead to meet the needs of modern operating systems and modern users.
Of course, Keith can do what he wants. But in the world I live in, I am seeing people drift away from the macOS way of doing things and drifting away from Scrivener and third-party barriers such as Dropbox. I want Scrivener to survive and thrive and to reach out to the huge iOS / iPadOS market out there. No one has explained how an ageing macOS and a two-design app is supposed to compete against sleeker options.
For the writers I know, an updated version of iOS Scrivener compiled for macOS and which syncs seamlessly using iCloud (as other writing apps do) would be far more preferable than what is available now. Perhaps their brains are wired differently, but people growing up today with technology all around them are wired differently to those who grew up when all of the current tech was just a dream.
For the record, I like Scrivener 3 and don’t need it to change. But I believe Catalyst presents an opportunity for Scrivener to streamline its development, support, and user-experience in a way that will be beneficial to the company and the vast majority of users in the years ahead. Sure, vinyl sounds better than digital, but most people would rather haul around 50,000 digital files on a small handheld device than lumber about with a heavy sound system and 50,000 slabs of vinyl. The tech around Scrivener has already changed and is going to change even more: in what alternative reality does a dual-design Scrivener with a clunky third-party sync function actually have a glorious future?
Slàinte mhòr.